The unprecedented development of ICT, ad the accompanying proliferation of computers, pripherals and communication equipment not only in all aspects of business but also in all walks of life and fields of work and activity resulted in technology playing a critical and determining role in business and business strategy. “ow we are at the early stages of another revolution – a revolution in business… New information technologies make this revolution possible. ”(Malone, 2004, p 4)Such rapid and radical changes also meant that the assumptions that could be made stable technology trends of the pre-ICT era were no longer possible as the technology trends themselves became very unstable and transient in nature.
Te high range of available technology choices and the growing complexity in business led to a complexity of the overall environment to which Technology Forecasting had to adapt itself. Tus we see the emergence of Technology Forecasting Technologies such as the Delphi replacing hardcore mathematical and quantitative forecasting. Dveloped by Ted Gordon and his associates at the Rand Corporation, Dlphi addressed the need to collate intellectual knowledge from people dispersed over different geographical locations, i an approach very similar to what could be termed as knowledge management to provide technology inputs for strategic planning in resonance with the future and its inevitable changes.
Delphi too has evolved over time resulting in a decrease in the number of query rounds and increase in the number of people queried. Te development of normative forecasting has also been a response to changing times. Nrmative forecasting first sets the objectives and then, i a very quantitative manner, secifies order activities that is required to meet the proposed schedule.
Te gaps in terms of capabilities or resources along the way are identified. Tese gaps can be in any area of science, tchnology, egineering or organization (Coates, 1999, p 62). Nrmative forecasting therefore forecasts a technology change and then splits up the path to achieve the required level of technology advancement into achievable incremental steps to be reached by plugging the identified gaps. Nrmative forecasting was used in the plan to put man on the moon. Gneral frameworks propositions have been applied in place of traditional technological forecasting to cover a wider spectrum of technology impacts.
Te Moore’s Law. ..
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